Chances

New business ideas and corporate projects are often approved or rejected through a mixture of enthusiasm, incomplete spreadsheets, individual experience and assumptions that have never been tested. The strongest presentation can win even when the foundations are weak. Equally, a valuable idea can be dismissed because its evidence is scattered or its potential has not been explained clearly.

Chances creates a consistent decision basis. It does not claim to predict the future or calculate a definitive mathematical probability of success. Instead, it identifies what supports the idea, what threatens it, what remains unknown and which assumptions should be tested before more time or money is committed.

Start with a description of the startup, business idea or project. Then work through the core information: the problem, proposed solution, customer benefits, technology, market, commercial model, competition, strategic fit, governance, project plan, team, financial outlook, funding needs and expected next steps.

Each core topic can be supported with written information and uploaded PDF, PowerPoint, Excel or Word documents. Chances reads the available material alongside your answers, so existing plans, calculations and presentations can become part of the assessment rather than remaining in separate files.

The detailed information goes further into market demand, unit economics, validation, timing, deployment, marketing efficiency, competitive advantages, team capability, operations, financial control and project management. You can complete what you know, mark what remains unknown and return as the evidence develops.

The deep analysis evaluates the supplied evidence across seven weighted domains:

• Concept and user demand — whether the problem is important, urgent and supported by evidence.
• Commercial and economics — whether acquisition costs, customer value, pricing and the expected sales cycle can support a viable model.
• Product and development — whether the solution can be delivered, validated and scaled without unacceptable dependency or cost.
• Project team and founders — whether the people involved have the necessary skills, experience and alignment.
• Financials and budget control — whether funding, runway and capital allocation are connected to meaningful milestones.
• Operations and management — whether the organisation can implement, support and govern the idea.
• Execution and project management — whether assumptions, decisions, progress and stopping conditions are actively managed.

The result is shown as a seven-point visual profile and a weighted viability score. Every score is accompanied by an explanation of the evidence behind it, so the number is not presented without context.

A useful assessment should not simply repeat the information it receives. Chances looks for missing validation, unsupported projections, weak commercial assumptions, execution dependencies and conditions that could cause the idea to fail.

It asks practical questions: Is the problem sufficiently urgent? Who is the user, buyer, budget owner and blocker? Is willingness to pay demonstrated or only assumed? What happens if sales take twice as long, acquisition costs double or the achievable price is lower than planned? Which assumption would invalidate the idea if it proved false, and when should the project stop, pivot or be reconsidered?

The output includes a prioritised list of missing information, helping you decide what to investigate next before increasing the commitment.

Alongside the score, Chances produces the conclusions a sponsor or investor would be likely to draw. These cover the problem and solution, protection of the concept, business impact, scalability, user fit, competitive position, strategic approach, measurable return, risk mitigation, team and project setup, and the information still needed to support a decision.

This makes the result useful not only for evaluating the idea internally, but also for preparing a more evidence-based discussion with management, sponsors, partners or investors.

When the initiative is an internal venture or corporate project, you can enable a dedicated information area covering strategic fit, intended users, business impact, benefit realisation, competing initiatives, internal communication, adoption, implementation capacity, organisational readiness, sponsor strength and internal politics.

These factors are included in the deep analysis only when the internal-venture option is enabled, keeping the assessment relevant to the type of idea being evaluated.

Chances is not designed to make the decision for you. It gives you a structured way to challenge the idea, compare confidence across its foundations and focus further work where it can change the outcome.

When the assessment is ready, you can request a project proposal with a cost estimate based on the information collected. The initiative can also be shared with Contributors who help develop it and Guests who need a view-only decision basis.